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How much has Temperature Seasonality Diminished and How much more will it Diminish?

Temperature seasonality of the Northern lands has diminished in the past 30 years by an amount equivalent to a 4 to 5 degree southward shift in latitude.

What does this mean?

Let us take the Arctic as an example. The annual temperature profile of the Arctic during the years 1951 to 1980 (a reference period) resembled the annual temperature profile of lands north of 65N (excluding ice sheets). By the decade 2001 to 2010, the annual temperature profile of the Arctic resembled the annual temperature profile of lands north of 61N during the reference period (1951 to 1980). Remember that seasonality decreases as you go equatorward.

How much more will temperature seasonality diminish by the end of this century?

The best estimate from 17 state-of-the-art climate models is: about 18 more degrees in latitude equatorward.

What does this mean?

Again, let us take the Arctic as an example. The annual temperature profile of the Arctic during the years 1951 to 1980 (a reference period) resembled the annual temperature profile of lands north of 65N (excluding ice sheets). By the decade 2091 to 2099, the annual temperature profile of the Arctic is projected by these models to resemble the annual temperature profile of lands north of 42N during the reference period (1951 to 1980).

Graphical Illustrations

Banks Island and Victoria Island (Canada)
Sweden North of 65N
Climate and Vegetation Research Group
Dept. of Geography,Boston University. XXX-XX-2013